The document, authored by David Wasserman for The Cook Political Report, offers an in-depth analysis of the political landscape leading up to the 2018 U.S. midterm elections. Wasserman emphasizes the increasing polarization of the American electorate, exemplified by a cultural divide between suburban, “Whole Foods” counties and rural, “Cracker Barrel” counties—a gap that reached its widest point in the 2016 presidential election. He discusses how shifts in population distribution and lifestyle preferences have contributed to the deepening partisan split, with most voters now residing in “landslide precincts.” Wasserman also notes the structural political advantages that benefit Republicans in both the Senate and House, including favorable geography, gerrymandering, and economic satisfaction under the Trump administration.
Despite these GOP advantages, the presentation identifies significant factors favoring Democrats in 2018, such as increased political engagement among women, especially college-educated women, the enthusiasm gap benefitting Democrats, and a historical number of GOP retirements. Wasserman predicts that these dynamics could result in a Democratic wave, particularly in the House, while the Senate battleground remains challenging for Democrats due to the rural-centric map. The report concludes by projecting Democratic gains in gubernatorial races—which are pivotal for future redistricting—and suggests that unpredictable factors may continue to shape the political environment ahead of the 2020 elections.
